Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Recommendation


Geometric Software
Reco price
Target 1
Target 2
Stop Loss
GEOSOF
Rs 76.05
79.85
81.30
74.10
Date: 15/04/10

The company offers engineering services and technology solutions for product lifecycle management (PLM) and also provides outsourced software product development (OPD) services for the engineering and manufacturing sectors. It serves the aerospace, automotive, consumer packaged goods, fashion, heavy engineering, high-tech and upstream oil and gas sectors
Over the past quarter, we have seen growth picking up in most of these industries .Once these sectors enter a secular trend of sustainable growth, offshore product development companies like Geometric will benefit from the client’s increasing focus on offshoring more work to drive cost efficiencies. The company reported a significant improvement in its operating metrics expanding the EBITDA margin by a whopping 317 bps QoQ to 15.8% .This was on the back of strong utilisation of 90.5%, which also inched up 120 bps QoQ.  
Technical view:  
  • The stock continues to form higher top and higher bottom indicating continuation of the bull trend
  • On the daily chart, we have observed a break-out from Triangular consolidation pattern above Rs 69.50 on the back of good volumes. Pattern implication suggests price target of Rs 80 in the short-term, which coincides with its 52-week high
  • MACD Oscillator has given a positive cross over along with rising +DI line of directional movement index suggesting strong bullish momentum in the stock
 

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Tube Investment
Reco price
Target 1
Target 2
Stop Loss
TUBINV
Rs 89.05
93.50
95.25
86.80
Date: 15/04/10

Tube Investment of India (TIIL), a flagship of the US$2.4 billion Murugappa Group company is into manufacturing of precision steel tubes and strips, car doorframes, automotive and industrial chains with 13 manufacturing units, having investments in Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Co Ltd and Cholamandalam MS General Insurance Co Ltd. The company enjoys a market share of 61% in precision tubes, 57% in car doorframes, 35% in automotive chain and 30% in bicycle segment.  
The growth is linked to the growth of the automotive segment. With the strong revival in the automotive segment, the company is likely to see strong growth in its revenue and, thereby, bottomline. In the first nine months, the company reported net sales of Rs 1,712.6 crore and net profit of Rs 84.5 crore as against FY09 net sales and net profit of Rs 2,062.2 crore and Rs 72.2 crore, respectively. We expect strong growth for FY10 to the tune of Rs 2,645 crore and ~ Rs 100 crore. The company also has a strong dividend history and paid 50% in FY09.  
Technical view:  
  • The stock is in an uptrend, thus forming higher top and higher bottom on the daily chart signalling strength
  • Continuation of the bull trend is confirmed as the stock has surpassed previous high and broken out of rounding pattern on the daily chart
  • Rising short-term moving averages point towards bullish momentum in the stock
  • Among momentum oscillators, the 14-day RSI and MACD oscillators are in a rising trend

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